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Comprehensive Assessment of World Crude Oil Supply<br>Through 2030

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Summary:


This study provides an in-depth look of crude oil supply over the next 20 years. Past outlooks have been limited to a macroscopic view of global supply but now that we are on a critical pathway of imbalance between supply and demand it becomes necessary to look in more detail at supply starting at the producing country level.
This study pursues this approach and dissects future supply capacity down to the oil-quality level for the 31 top producing countries that account for 93% of total crude output, and their 200 top producing oil fields. We specifically concentrate on crude oil since it is the main source (85%) of the mix of petroleum supply which also includes NGLs (11%), biofuels (2%), and other liquids. More importantly, however, crude is the core of the oil market, from well-head to pipelines to tankers to refineries, and finally to the consumer. It is also the only source for on the spot adjustments to market disruptions if they should arise.
Two-thirds of the 31 top oil producing countries are on the decline as a consequence of the fact that the majority of the top 194 producing oil fields are mature. The Big Three producers, Russia, Saudi Arabia, and the US are also past the mid-life of their reserves. Globally, we are not running out of oil… far from it. We have already discovered 10 times the volume of oil we have produced/consumed (1.1 trillion barrels) over the last 150 years, and these vast resources are still in the ground. How far in the future we can extend oil’s availability at adequate output levels depends on two factors: how expeditiously we can implement specialized EOR techniques that can double our reserves and how effectively we can rein-in the use of oil for transportation which consumes a whopping two-thirds of all the oil produced. There is an old industry adage: ‘the best place to find oil is in an oil field’. And we have 40,000 of these with 10+ trillion barrels. Just ‘yanking out’ another 20% of it will give us supply for 80 years at current production rates! The new surge in oil prices, supply fears, growing global demand – there has never been a better time for the oil industry to expand towards EOR.


Scope:


  • Current overview and oil demand at a glance.
  • Oil quality, classification, benchmarks.
  • Regional top producing fields and worldwide top producing fields.
  • Assessing proven developed oil reserves, basics of reserves evaluation.
  • Consideration of unconventional oil.
  • Proven developed reserves, region-by-region.
  • Oil discovered in the last decade.
  • Proven un-developed oil reserves, upstream projects by country.
  • Crude oil-quality outlooks by region and country.
  • World outlook scenarios.
  • 104 tables, maps and charts.


    Date Published:


    March, 2012


    Author:


    Rafael Sandrea, Ph D, Renowned International Petroleum Consultant.
    Dr. Sandrea has pulled off a unique balancing act by synchronizing countries with top oil producing fields with outlooks for the producing regions! This product is a complete picture, not just a single curve on a chart! You will see the integrity of this production model!



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